Golden Dream
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.46
34.91 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $15.71 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
145.53%
564 openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (110.03% – 181.03%, 564 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 564 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$17.4634.91 coins$1,1782,355 coins67.47x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.4634.91 coins$5251,050 coins30.07x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.46 | 89.98% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.8%extraordinary 0.2%gold 0.1%epic 0.1%restricted 20.0%#4b69ff 8.0%#8847ff 67.9%best hit $4,097 (234.7x)