Golden Pepe

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$308.75

618 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $277.87 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

147.25%

39 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

39 openings · below min

30 days

39 openings · below min

since tracking started

39 openings · below min

88.5%147.0%205.5%

Small sample. 39 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	39	147.25%±57.9	—	odds
30d	39	147.25%±57.9	—	odds
All	39	147.25%±57.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 286	$2,935 5,870 coins	3.7%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 182	$2,539 5,078 coins	5.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 91	$1,946 3,893 coins	7.7%	2	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 67	$1,757 3,515 coins	9.5%	2	0.6	—
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 50	$1,723 3,447 coins	12.4%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$1,449 2,899 coins	15.6%	1	1.2	0.85×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$1,266 2,533 coins	16.0%	4	1.4	2.93×
Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 25	$1,250 2,500 coins	18.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$251 501 coins	5.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$201 401 coins	4.3%	3	2.3	1.28×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	10.0%	$50.22 100 coins	1.8%	7	3.9	1.79×
Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	12.5%	$7.88 15.75 coins	0.4%	7	4.9	1.44×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.5%	$2.64 5.27 coins	0.1%	2	4.9	0.41×
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	37.0%	$0.50 1 coins	0.1%	9	14.4	0.62×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.