Golden Vault
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.72
31.44 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.15 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.65%
2,318 openings, odds method
Variance
17.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 37
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,318 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.7231.44 coins$1,3962,792 coins88.80x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.72 | 89.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert 4.6%restricted 5.5%classified 43.0%#8847ff 46.8%best hit $1,410 (89.71x)