Golds Only
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,598.36
5,197 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,338.52 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.55%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,5985,197 coins$6,32812,655 coins2.44x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2,5985,197 coins$2,9465,893 coins1.13x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$2,5985,197 coins$2,8445,688 coins1.09x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,5985,197 coins$1,9463,893 coins0.75x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$2,5985,197 coins$1,8343,667 coins0.71x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,5985,197 coins$1,4612,922 coins0.56x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,5985,197 coins$1,4612,922 coins0.56x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2,5985,197 coins$2,9465,893 coins1.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,5985,197 coins$1,9463,893 coins0.75x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$2,5985,197 coins$6,32812,655 coins2.44x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,5985,197 coins$1,4612,922 coins0.56x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$2,5985,197 coins$2,8445,688 coins1.09x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$2,5985,197 coins$1,8343,667 coins0.71x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$2,5985,197 coins$1,4612,922 coins0.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,598 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 2.6%covert 32.5%extraordinary 30.9%Covert 34.0%best hit $6,328 (2.44x)