Gungnir Troll

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.41

2.82 coins

Advertised RTP

89.85%

EV $1.27 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.89%

17.3K openings, odds method

Variance

1165.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 1,099

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

434 openings · below min

7 days

99.89%±51.9416.6K openings

30 days

100.89%±50.8017.3K openings

since tracking started

100.89%±50.8017.3K openings

-0.5%265.5%531.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	434	209.68%±321.2	—	odds
7d	16.6K	99.89%±51.9	+0.4σ	odds
30d	17.3K	100.89%±50.8	+0.4σ	odds
All	17.3K	100.89%±50.8	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$9,355 18,710 coins	7.4%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,266 2,533 coins	90.0%	19	15.6	1.22×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$5.17 10.34 coins	0.4%	22	15.6	1.41×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,111	$5.03 10.05 coins	0.4%	15	15.6	0.96×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.5%	$0.07 0.15 coins	0.7%	2,250	2161.6	1.04×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	12.5%	$0.03 0.06 coins	0.3%	2,075	2161.6	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.5%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	2,165	2161.6	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.5%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	2,259	2161.6	1.05×
SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	12.5%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.1%	2,157	2161.6	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	12.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	2,090	2161.6	0.97×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	12.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	2,115	2161.6	0.98×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,181	2170.1	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1.412.82 coins$1,2662,533 coins898.2x18h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1.412.82 coins$1,2662,533 coins898.2x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertgramou$1.412.82 coins$1,2662,533 coins898.2x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1.412.82 coins$1,2662,533 coins898.2x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$1.412.82 coins$0.030.06 coins0.02x59m

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGrimViper3313$1.412.82 coins$0.030.05 coins0.02x59m

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer$1.412.82 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x59m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.412.82 coins$0.010.03 coins0.01x59m

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$1.412.82 coins$0.030.06 coins0.02x59m

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer$1.412.82 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x59m

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$1.412.82 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x59m

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1.412.82 coins$0.030.05 coins0.02x59m

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1.412.82 coins$0.030.05 coins0.02x2h

SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$1.412.82 coins$0.030.05 coins0.02x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.41	89.85%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.1%Uncommon 0.1%milspec 37.4%blue 12.5%consumer 37.4%industrial 12.5%best hit $1,266 (898.2x)