Gutted
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.36
22.72 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.22 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
139.57%
3,843 openings, odds method
Variance
221.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 400
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.53% – 186.61%, 3,843 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,859 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $3,498 6,995 coins | 34.2% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.55× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 667 | $3,288 6,576 coins | 48.3% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.73× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $150 300 coins | 14.7% | 42 | 38.6 | 1.09× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 1 in 20 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 1.0% | 176 | 193.0 | 0.91× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.5% | 174 | 193.0 | 0.90× |
| FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $0.28 0.57 coins | 0.3% | 346 | 347.3 | 1.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 29.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.7% | 1,123 | 1119.1 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 50.7% | $0.08 0.16 coins | 0.4% | 1,982 | 1958.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$11.3622.72 coins$3,4986,995 coins307.9x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$3,2886,576 coins289.4x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$3,2886,576 coins289.4x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$3,2886,576 coins289.4x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$3,2886,576 coins289.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.36 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 0.1%covert knife 1.0%#777777 5.0%restricted 34.0%mil spec 9.0%blue 50.7%best hit $3,498 (307.9x)