Half Full Cup
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$55.73
111 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $50.15 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
44.32%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$55.73111 coins$82.68165 coins1.48x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$55.73111 coins$112223 coins2.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $55.73 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 9.5%classified 1.0%covert 11.0%restricted 5.0%Classified 5.0%uncommon 12.0%Consumer Grade 56.5%best hit —