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Halloween 5%

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$12.50
25 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
88.30%
1,160 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
106 openings · below min
7 days
859 openings · below min
30 days
88.30%±39.411,160 openings
since tracking started
88.30%±39.411,160 openings
-0.5%316.3%633.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h106264.47%±368.0—sample
7d85983.02%±49.2—sample
30d1,16088.30%±39.4—sample
All1,16088.30%±39.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$12.5025 coins$2,4684,935 coins197.4x
★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$12.5025 coins$6771,353 coins54.13x
★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$12.5025 coins$6771,353 coins54.13x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerNirra$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,468 (197.4x)