Hardened
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.50
105 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $47.24 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
126.06%
164 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 164 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 130 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 20.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 67 | $744 1,489 coins | 23.6% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 1 in 33 | $341 681 coins | 21.6% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 14 | $102 204 coins | 15.1% | 21 | 11.5 | 1.83× |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $64.02 128 coins | 9.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon | 1 in 14 | $49.51 99.01 coins | 7.3% | 15 | 11.5 | 1.31× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $8.16 16.31 coins | 1.7% | 11 | 16.4 | 0.67× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 0.6% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× |
| G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 53.7% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 81 | 88.1 | 0.92× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$52.50105 coins$7441,489 coins14.18x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$52.50105 coins$7441,489 coins14.18x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$52.50105 coins$7441,489 coins14.18x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$52.50105 coins$7441,489 coins14.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.50 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%#EB4B4B 1.5%Knives 3.0%gold 7.0%restricted 17.0%other 7.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 53.7%best hit $1,258 (23.97x)