Hardpoint
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.91
27.81 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $12.51 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.11%
202 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 202 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.9127.81 coins$85.62171 coins6.16x
★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortalrekztimmy$13.9127.81 coins$47.5795.13 coins3.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.91 | 89.97% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 4.0%Extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 0.2%covert 12.0%Restricted 0.8%Industrial Grade 1.2%Immortal 2.3%gold 3.5%restricted 5.0%mil spec 5.0%Uncommon 65.9%best hit —