Havoc
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.58
7.15 coins
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $3.22 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.34%
1,085 openings, odds method
Variance
8.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,085 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 143 | $86.04 172 coins | 18.7% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 143 | $54.06 108 coins | 11.8% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 63 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 24.2% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $14.73 29.45 coins | 9.2% | 29 | 21.7 | 1.34× |
| FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $8.96 17.92 coins | 11.1% | 38 | 43.4 | 0.88× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 14 | $4.69 9.38 coins | 10.2% | 80 | 76.0 | 1.05× |
| SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 33.0% | $1.12 2.24 coins | 11.5% | 363 | 358.1 | 1.01× |
| SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 51.0% | $0.20 0.41 coins | 3.3% | 544 | 553.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.58 | 89.93% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#4b69ff 0.7%restricted 2.3%industrial 9.0%mil spec 37.0%Mythical 51.0%best hit —