Hawk

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.87

89.73 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $40.38 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.42%

180 openings, odds method

Variance

13.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 39

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

158 openings · below min

30 days

180 openings · below min

since tracking started

180 openings · below min

11.0%70.8%130.5%

Small sample. 180 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	158	72.80%±57.3	—	odds
30d	180	65.42%±53.7	—	odds
All	180	65.42%±53.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$3,086 6,171 coins	3.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,402 2,805 coins	17.4%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 100	$728 1,457 coins	18.0%	3	1.8	1.67×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 100	$653 1,306 coins	16.2%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$487 973 coins	12.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$447 894 coins	11.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$37.64 75.28 coins	4.7%	5	9.0	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$35.33 70.65 coins	5.2%	7	10.8	0.65×
XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	11.0%	$33.87 67.74 coins	9.2%	27	19.8	1.36×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$3.03 6.05 coins	1.0%	22	23.4	0.94×
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D9	14.0%	$1.56 3.11 coins	0.5%	19	25.2	0.75×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.01 2.02 coins	0.5%	36	36.0	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	26.5%	$0.50 1 coins	0.3%	58	47.6	1.22×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$44.8789.73 coins$7281,457 coins16.23x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$44.8789.73 coins$7281,457 coins16.23x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$44.8789.73 coins$7281,457 coins16.23x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$44.8789.73 coins$6531,306 coins14.55x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$44.8789.73 coins$1.012.02 coins0.02x1d

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$44.8789.73 coins$0.501 coins0.01x1d

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert$44.8789.73 coins$37.6475.28 coins0.84x1d

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$44.8789.73 coins$0.501 coins0.01x1d

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$44.8789.73 coins$35.3370.65 coins0.79x1d

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueprudent$44.8789.73 coins$0.501 coins0.01x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$44.8789.73 coins$7281,457 coins16.23x1d

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$44.8789.73 coins$1.012.02 coins0.02x1d

XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted$44.8789.73 coins$33.8767.74 coins0.75x1d

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$44.8789.73 coins$0.501 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$44.87	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.6%other 2.0%Restricted 11.0%restricted 13.0%#B0C3D9 14.0%mil spec 20.0%blue 26.5%best hit $728 (16.23x)