Price
$0.57
1.13 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $0.51 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.46%
17.5K openings, odds method
Variance
4126.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 7,634
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 17,526 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000,000 | $9,457 18,914 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100,000 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 20,000 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 30.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14,286 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 32.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 23.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 100.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 2.9% | 17,524 | 17524.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.561.13 coins$2,3404,679 coins4,141x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$0.561.13 coins$2,3404,679 coins4,141x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.56 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%contraband 0.0%high 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%#4b69ff 100.0%best hit $3,097 (5,481x)