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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.27
0.54 coins
Advertised RTP
88.49%
EV $0.24 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
162.97%
10.8K openings, odds method
Variance
2160.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 7,143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10,760 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$0.270.54 coins$1,7503,500 coins6,482x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$0.270.54 coins$6181,236 coins2,289x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.27 | 88.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Immortal 0.0%industrial 2.5%blue 2.5%Common 40.0%consumer 55.0%best hit $1,750 (6,482x)