Hercules

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,987.43

3,975 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,788.68 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.62%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

53.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

14.5%67.3%120.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	66.23%±51.3	—	odds
7d	16	93.62%±25.6	—	odds
30d	16	93.62%±25.6	—	odds
All	16	93.62%±25.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$5,754 11,508 coins	1.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$4,806 9,611 coins	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 80	$3,592 7,183 coins	2.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 29	$2,877 5,753 coins	5.6%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$2,792 5,584 coins	9.4%	2	1.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 13	$2,730 5,460 coins	12.2%	2	1.3	1.56×
Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary	12.0%	$2,528 5,057 coins	17.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary	15.0%	$2,401 4,803 coins	20.1%	2	2.4	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	15.0%	$1,973 3,946 coins	16.5%	2	2.4	0.83×
Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	10.0%	$1,250 2,500 coins	7.0%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 13	$723 1,447 coins	3.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	20.0%	$250 500 coins	2.8%	4	3.2	1.25×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.