Hidden Eggs

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.06

22.11 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $9.95 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.08%

1,111 openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 38

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

100.23%±22.12887 openings

30 days

99.08%±19.771,111 openings

since tracking started

99.08%±19.771,111 openings

-0.5%72.0%144.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	19.30%±124.5	—	odds
7d	887	100.23%±22.1	+0.9σ	odds
30d	1,111	99.08%±19.8	+0.9σ	odds
All	1,111	99.08%±19.8	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100,000	$1,353 2,706 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 100,000	$1,316 2,632 coins	0.1%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$633 1,265 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$339 679 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$254 508 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 63	$226 451 coins	36.3%	21	17.8	1.18×
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$156 313 coins	15.7%	10	11.1	0.90×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$106 211 coins	21.2%	19	22.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$59.61 119 coins	24.0%	39	44.4	0.88×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$5.11 10.21 coins	2.1%	42	44.4	0.95×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	87.4%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	979	970.9	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$11.0622.11 coins$1,3162,632 coins119.1x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$11.0622.11 coins$59.61119 coins5.39x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMoon1025$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMoon1025$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$11.0622.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.06	89.99%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.6%high 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 5.0%violet 4.0%consumer 87.4%best hit $1,316 (119.1x)