High Stakes
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,120.89
2,242 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,008.80 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.56%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 10.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $4,260 8,520 coins | 16.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $4,137 8,274 coins | 16.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B | 1 in 25 | $3,915 7,830 coins | 15.5% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× |
| Charm | Baby Karat CTcharm · rare | 1 in 25 | $3,848 7,697 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $3,407 6,814 coins | 13.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 25 | $3,107 6,214 coins | 12.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $2,545 5,091 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 72.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 52 | 49.0 | 1.06× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,121 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 12.0%#EB4B4B 4.0%rare 4.0%covert 8.0%#4b69ff 72.0%best hit $4,260 (3.80x)