Hit a Lick

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$27.64

55.27 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $24.87 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.84%

563 openings, odds method

Variance

13.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

82.95%±41.07299 openings

30 days

88.84%±29.93563 openings

since tracking started

88.84%±29.93563 openings

0.0%103.3%206.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	103.19%±102.5	—	odds
7d	299	82.95%±41.1	−0.3σ	odds
30d	563	88.84%±29.9	−0.1σ	odds
All	563	88.84%±29.9	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 563 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| somebody (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$4,480 8,960 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$4,137 8,274 coins	1.7%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$3,498 6,995 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 10,000	$3,097 6,194 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| keev (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker	1 in 10,000	$2,948 5,895 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 10,000	$2,877 5,754 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,528 5,057 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$500 1,000 coins	2.0%	2	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$150 300 coins	6.0%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$148 295 coins	5.9%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$146 292 coins	5.9%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$143 287 coins	5.8%	11	5.6	1.95×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$141 281 coins	5.6%	4	5.6	0.71×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$140 280 coins	5.6%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$135 270 coins	5.4%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 100	$132 264 coins	5.3%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 100	$129 258 coins	5.2%	4	5.6	0.71×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$125 251 coins	5.0%	3	5.6	0.53×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$29.36 58.71 coins	11.8%	50	56.3	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$26.67 53.34 coins	10.7%	54	56.3	0.96×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$25.16 50.31 coins	10.1%	54	56.3	0.96×
SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	19.9%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	125	112.3	1.11×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	19.9%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	111	112.3	0.99×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	20.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	106	112.3	0.94×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1$27.6455.27 coins$5001,000 coins18.10x7d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1$27.6455.27 coins$5001,000 coins18.10x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$27.6455.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

Souvenir Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$27.6455.27 coins$140280 coins5.07x15h

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal$27.6455.27 coins$132264 coins4.78x15h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$27.6455.27 coins$26.6753.34 coins0.97x15h

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$27.6455.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$27.6455.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$27.6455.27 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x15h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$27.6455.27 coins$26.6753.34 coins0.97x15h

SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.6455.27 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x15h

★ Survival Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$27.6455.27 coins$143287 coins5.19x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$27.64	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%high 0.0%other 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%gold 1.0%covert 2.0%covert knife 4.0%classified 21.0%Immortal 1.0%#ffd700 1.0%Rare 10.0%consumer 19.9%industrial 19.9%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $500 (18.10x)