Hold Site
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$101.82
204 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $91.63 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.56%
1,294 openings, odds method
Variance
12.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (45.02% – 84.10%, 1,294 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,294 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 100 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 39.5% | 4 | 12.9 | 0.31× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 33 | $450 900 coins | 14.7% | 34 | 38.8 | 0.88× |
| Charm | Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary | 1 in 33 | $226 451 coins | 7.4% | 40 | 38.8 | 1.03× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $121 241 coins | 19.7% | 203 | 194.1 | 1.05× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $75.06 150 coins | 16.4% | 254 | 258.8 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 1.4% | 318 | 323.5 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 33.0% | $2.53 5.06 coins | 0.9% | 441 | 427.0 | 1.03× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$102204 coins$3,6177,234 coins35.52x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireEliteRift1189$102204 coins$3,6177,234 coins35.52x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$102204 coins$3,6177,234 coins35.52x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$102204 coins$3,6177,234 coins35.52x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary$102204 coins$121241 coins1.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%Legendary 18.0%Restricted 20.0%classified 25.0%mil spec 33.0%best hit $3,617 (35.52x)