Hops & Robbers
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.55
19.1 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.59 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.13%
1,337 openings, odds method
Variance
37.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,337 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 200 | $601 1,202 coins | 35.0% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $572 1,143 coins | 33.3% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 9.1% | 21 | 26.7 | 0.79× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $22.31 44.61 coins | 5.2% | 27 | 26.7 | 1.01× |
| Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $18.09 36.17 coins | 6.3% | 45 | 40.1 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $11.64 23.28 coins | 5.4% | 70 | 53.5 | 1.31× |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $6.19 12.37 coins | 3.6% | 71 | 66.9 | 1.06× |
| Dual Berettas | Briar (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 17 | $3.02 6.04 coins | 2.1% | 71 | 80.2 | 0.89× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 77.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,018 | 1029.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyEliteLynx4233$9.5519.1 coins$6011,202 coins62.93x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$9.5519.1 coins$5721,143 coins59.85x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$9.5519.1 coins$5721,143 coins59.85x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$9.5519.1 coins$5721,143 coins59.85x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$9.5519.1 coins$5721,143 coins59.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.55 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%covert knife 0.5%restricted 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%mil spec 4.0%pink 5.0%consumer 83.0%best hit $601 (62.93x)