Hostage
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.00
10 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $4.50 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.10%
6,243 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,261 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 167 | $252 504 coins | 33.6% | 44 | 37.6 | 1.17× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 111 | $153 307 coins | 30.7% | 53 | 56.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $50.58 101 coins | 11.2% | 57 | 62.6 | 0.91× |
| CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 33 | $7.60 15.19 coins | 5.1% | 177 | 187.8 | 0.94× |
| Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $1.57 3.13 coins | 3.5% | 606 | 626.1 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 3.4% | 627 | 626.1 | 1.00× |
| SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 36.5% | $0.96 1.93 coins | 7.8% | 2,358 | 2285.3 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 38.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 4.7% | 2,339 | 2379.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedNiksifan123$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedjohnhimhim$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.0010 coins$252504 coins50.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.6%covert 11.9%#eb4b4b 3.0%violet 10.0%milspec 36.5%Rare 38.0%best hit $252 (50.39x)