Hot Drop
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.14
92.27 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $41.52 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.69%
156 openings, odds method
Variance
12.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 156 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 100 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 30.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 100 | $914 1,828 coins | 22.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $578 1,155 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 17 | $102 205 coins | 14.8% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $25.41 50.82 coins | 6.1% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $15.21 30.42 coins | 5.5% | 28 | 23.4 | 1.20× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $9.58 19.15 coins | 4.6% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $3.53 7.05 coins | 1.9% | 31 | 34.3 | 0.90× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 24.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.6% | 39 | 37.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$46.1492.27 coins$1,2712,542 coins27.55x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$46.1492.27 coins$9141,828 coins19.81x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$46.1492.27 coins$1,2712,542 coins27.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.14 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%extraordinary 7.0%restricted 34.0%classified 35.0%Consumer Grade 22.0%best hit $1,271 (27.55x)