Howl Lot of M4A1s

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$153.54

307 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $138.18 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.28%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

58.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

7.0%90.8%174.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	90.77%±83.0	—	odds
7d	8	90.77%±83.0	—	odds
30d	16	98.28%±58.7	—	odds
All	16	98.28%±58.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 1,000	$2,955 5,910 coins	2.1%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$1,381 2,761 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$774 1,548 coins	5.6%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 100	$635 1,269 coins	4.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	30.0%	$308 616 coins	66.9%	7	4.8	1.46×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$215 431 coins	4.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$169 339 coins	3.7%	1	0.5	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$161 323 coins	3.5%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$102 203 coins	2.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$69.34 139 coins	1.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$62.94 126 coins	1.4%	1	0.5	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 33	$60.91 122 coins	1.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$15.15 30.29 coins	0.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$14.61 29.21 coins	0.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$11.32 22.63 coins	0.2%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$8.63 17.26 coins	0.2%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$8.29 16.58 coins	0.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$4.01 8.01 coins	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$2.68 5.35 coins	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$1.79 3.58 coins	0.0%	2	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$0.66 1.32 coins	0.0%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.36 0.73 coins	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$0.28 0.55 coins	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	13.8%	$0.27 0.54 coins	0.0%	2	2.2	0.91×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$154307 coins$169339 coins1.10x18h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$154307 coins$308616 coins2.01x18h

M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$154307 coins$0.270.54 coins0.00x18h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted$154307 coins$8.6317.26 coins0.06x18h

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$154307 coins$0.661.32 coins0.00x18h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$154307 coins$308616 coins2.01x18h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covertbouyks$154307 coins$11.3222.63 coins0.07x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$154	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.1%Classified 0.1%#EB4B4B 1.0%Covert 1.0%covert 45.0%classified 12.0%industrial 6.0%#D32CE6 3.0%restricted 9.0%mil spec 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Mythical 3.0%#8847ff 13.8%best hit —