Hqteful
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$90.29
181 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $81.26 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.70%
1,220 openings, odds method
Variance
17.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,220 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$90.29181 coins$1,3502,701 coins14.96x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$90.29181 coins$1,3502,701 coins14.96x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $90.29 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.0%epic 1.0%rare 5.0%classified 22.0%gold 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%industrial 10.0%mil spec 10.0%gray 5.0%#8847ff 10.0%consumer 10.0%best hit $4,916 (54.45x)