Hunted
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.49
4.98 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $2.24 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.58%
12.7K openings, odds method
Variance
113.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $418 836 coins | 74.6% | 56 | 51.0 | 1.10× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 63 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 19.1% | 215 | 204.1 | 1.05× |
| AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 13 | $0.68 1.35 coins | 2.3% | 1,006 | 956.7 | 1.05× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $0.60 1.2 coins | 2.0% | 914 | 956.7 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 13 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.9% | 976 | 956.7 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 13 | $0.27 0.53 coins | 0.9% | 964 | 956.7 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 34.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 4,358 | 4337.0 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 34.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 4,267 | 4337.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertCupcake$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertnutinaguti$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.494.98 coins$418836 coins167.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specGrimViper3313$2.494.98 coins$0.601.2 coins0.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.49 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%classified 1.6%Mythical 15.0%mil spec 7.5%violet 7.5%milspec 34.0%#4b69ff 34.0%best hit $418 (167.8x)