Hush
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.51
37.01 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.65 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.87%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
44.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $73.78 148 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $29.87 59.74 coins | 25.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $18.27 36.53 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $18.18 36.35 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $17.02 34.04 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $14.61 29.21 coins | 12.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 14.0% | $6.19 12.37 coins | 5.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.68× |
| USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2 | 14.0% | $6.07 12.13 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.68× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.51 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 14.0%classified 1.0%restricted 29.0%covert 42.0%pink 14.0%best hit —