Hype

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$517.95

1,036 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $466.15 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

219.86%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

89.5%211.2%333.0%

Small sample. 14 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	14	219.86%±112.3	—	odds
30d	14	219.86%±112.3	—	odds
All	14	219.86%±112.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$9,318 18,637 coins	10.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 143	$7,752 15,504 coins	11.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 100	$4,761 9,523 coins	10.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$2,993 5,986 coins	12.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$1,252 2,504 coins	6.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 40	$1,138 2,277 coins	6.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 40	$1,012 2,023 coins	5.4%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby	1 in 40	$1,011 2,022 coins	5.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$834 1,669 coins	5.4%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$797 1,594 coins	5.1%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$571 1,141 coins	3.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 25	$428 855 coins	3.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20	$323 645 coins	3.5%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$157 314 coins	2.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 14	$151 302 coins	2.3%	0	1.0	—
AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon	53.8%	$49.51 99.01 coins	5.7%	10	7.5	1.33×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert$5181,036 coins$9,31818,637 coins17.99x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$5181,036 coins$4,7619,523 coins9.19x4d

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FFaxel02legmail$5181,036 coins$7971,594 coins1.54x1d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$5181,036 coins$5711,141 coins1.10x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert$5181,036 coins$9,31818,637 coins17.99x1d

AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon$5181,036 coins$49.5199.01 coins0.10x1d

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FFaxel02legmail$5181,036 coins$7971,594 coins1.54x1d

AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon$5181,036 coins$49.5199.01 coins0.10x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$518	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.2%contraband 1.0%extraordinary 2.5%#EB4B4B 2.5%#4B69FF 3.0%gold 11.0%sunny 5.0%other 53.8%best hit $9,318 (17.99x)