I AM STEVE

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$70.92

142 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $63.83 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.88%

913 openings, odds method

Variance

12.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

58 openings · below min

7 days

95.68%±33.79431 openings

30 days

82.88%±23.21913 openings

since tracking started

82.88%±23.21913 openings

-0.5%72.8%146.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	58	53.46%±92.1	—	odds
7d	431	95.68%±33.8	+0.3σ	odds
30d	913	82.88%±23.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	913	82.88%±23.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 937 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,086 6,171 coins	4.8%	0	0.9	—
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 588	$2,539 5,078 coins	6.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 455	$2,295 4,590 coins	7.9%	2	2.1	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 385	$1,876 3,752 coins	7.6%	3	2.4	1.23×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 323	$1,501 3,002 coins	7.3%	3	2.9	1.03×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 270	$1,266 2,533 coins	7.3%	3	3.5	0.87×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$1,002 2,005 coins	6.3%	8	3.7	2.13×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 151	$751 1,501 coins	7.8%	2	6.2	0.32×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 100	$501 1,002 coins	7.8%	14	9.4	1.49×
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 67	$376 752 coins	8.8%	13	14.1	0.92×
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$250 500 coins	7.8%	18	18.7	0.96×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$125 251 coins	6.9%	34	32.8	1.04×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 20	$50.13 100 coins	3.9%	48	46.9	1.02×
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$25.41 50.82 coins	2.0%	48	46.9	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$12.52 25.03 coins	1.0%	40	46.9	0.85×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	74.5%	$5.03 10.05 coins	5.9%	701	698.1	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$70.92142 coins$2,2954,590 coins32.36x4d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$70.92142 coins$2,2954,590 coins32.36x8d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$70.92142 coins$1,8763,752 coins26.45x6d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$70.92142 coins$1,8763,752 coins26.45x8d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$70.92142 coins$1,5013,002 coins21.16x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$70.92142 coins$1,5013,002 coins21.16x6d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$70.92142 coins$1,5013,002 coins21.16x8d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$70.92142 coins$1,2662,533 coins17.86x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$70.92142 coins$1,2662,533 coins17.86x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert$70.92142 coins$125251 coins1.77x28m

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$70.92142 coins$5011,002 coins7.06x28m

P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$70.92142 coins$5.0310.05 coins0.07x28m

Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$70.92142 coins$50.13100 coins0.71x28m

P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$70.92142 coins$5.0310.05 coins0.07x28m

P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonEliteRift1189$70.92142 coins$5.0310.05 coins0.07x28m

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$70.92142 coins$7511,501 coins10.58x31m

P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$70.92142 coins$5.0310.05 coins0.07x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$70.92	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.2%remarkable 0.2%other 0.7%Covert 1.0%covert knife 1.5%industrial 2.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%restricted 5.0%mil spec 5.0%Uncommon 74.5%best hit $2,295 (32.36x)