Immortal
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18,331.04
36,662 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $16,497.93 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
140.63%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 9.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 40.0% | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 100.0% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 60.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 9 | 14.4 | 0.63× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertinsane67$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covertinsane67$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.3K36,662 coins$41.2K82,490 coins2.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.3K | 90.00% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%#4b69ff 60.0%best hit $41.2K (2.25x)