Impact
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.06
6.11 coins
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $2.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.87%
680 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $54.32 109 coins | 19.8% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| MAC-10 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 17 | $12.11 24.21 coins | 26.4% | 38 | 40.8 | 0.93× |
| MAC-10 | Indigo (Factory New)weapon · Common | 1 in 17 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 17.6% | 46 | 40.8 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $5.23 10.45 coins | 11.4% | 38 | 40.8 | 0.93× |
| MP7 | Asterion (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 17 | $2.89 5.77 coins | 6.3% | 50 | 40.8 | 1.23× |
| P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $0.86 1.72 coins | 7.8% | 159 | 170.0 | 0.94× |
| UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.65 1.3 coins | 5.9% | 178 | 170.0 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New)weapon · blue | 25.0% | $0.52 1.04 coins | 4.7% | 166 | 170.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.06 | 89.92% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 1.0%consumer 12.0%Common 6.0%classified 6.0%pink 25.0%#4b69ff 25.0%blue 25.0%best hit —