In the Jungle

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$31.12

62.24 coins

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $28.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.35%

1,645 openings, odds method

Variance

58.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 167

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100 openings · below min

7 days

64.65%±41.461,303 openings

30 days

85.35%±36.901,645 openings

since tracking started

85.35%±36.901,645 openings

-0.5%93.8%188.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	100	37.58%±149.7	—	odds
7d	1,303	64.65%±41.5	−1.2σ	odds
30d	1,645	85.35%±36.9	−0.2σ	odds
All	1,645	85.35%±36.9	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,645 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$6,389 12,778 coins	22.8%	2	1.6	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 200	$1,757 3,515 coins	31.4%	5	8.2	0.61×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 67	$168 335 coins	9.0%	22	24.7	0.89×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 29	$88.80 178 coins	11.1%	69	57.6	1.20×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 23	$71.01 142 coins	11.2%	74	72.4	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$26.46 52.92 coins	4.7%	87	82.3	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$17.64 35.28 coins	3.1%	87	82.3	1.06×
XM1014 \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$11.49 22.98 coins	2.1%	95	82.3	1.16×
M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$11.24 22.47 coins	2.0%	85	82.3	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$2.21 4.42 coins	0.8%	139	164.5	0.84×
M249 \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Common	10.0%	$2.03 4.05 coins	0.7%	163	164.5	0.99×
Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$1.88 3.75 coins	0.7%	171	164.5	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	10.0%	$0.91 1.82 coins	0.3%	155	164.5	0.94×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue	10.0%	$0.23 0.47 coins	0.1%	174	164.5	1.06×
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.13 0.26 coins	0.0%	151	164.5	0.92×
G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$0.09 0.17 coins	0.0%	166	164.5	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$31.1262.24 coins$6,38912,778 coins205.3x3d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$31.1262.24 coins$6,38912,778 coins205.3x8d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$31.1262.24 coins$1,7573,515 coins56.47x4d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$31.1262.24 coins$1,7573,515 coins56.47x7d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$31.1262.24 coins$1,7573,515 coins56.47x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.1262.24 coins$71.01142 coins2.28x36m

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$31.1262.24 coins$17.6435.28 coins0.57x36m

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue$31.1262.24 coins$0.230.47 coins0.01x36m

XM1014 | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · consumer$31.1262.24 coins$11.4922.98 coins0.37x36m

SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.1262.24 coins$26.4652.92 coins0.85x36m

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$31.1262.24 coins$17.6435.28 coins0.57x36m

M249 | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Common$31.1262.24 coins$2.034.05 coins0.07x36m

G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer$31.1262.24 coins$0.090.17 coins0.00x4h

SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumereliboti$31.1262.24 coins$2.214.42 coins0.07x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$31.12	90.01%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.5%Restricted 1.5%industrial 12.9%Consumer Grade 5.0%consumer 40.0%Common 10.0%gray 10.0%blue 10.0%Rare 10.0%best hit $6,389 (205.3x)