Industrial Core
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$44.88
89.76 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $40.39 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.22%
192 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 192 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $607 1,214 coins | 15.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon | 1 in 100 | $606 1,211 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic | 1 in 100 | $579 1,159 coins | 14.3% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $555 1,110 coins | 13.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| Charm | Lil' Sandycharm · uncommon | 1 in 100 | $530 1,060 coins | 13.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $506 1,012 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $21.68 43.36 coins | 8.1% | 36 | 28.8 | 1.25× |
| P2000 | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $11.65 23.3 coins | 4.3% | 27 | 28.8 | 0.94× |
| P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $7.11 14.22 coins | 2.6% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 49.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.2% | 95 | 94.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKocvreKK$44.8889.76 coins$6071,214 coins13.53x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicKocvreKK$44.8889.76 coins$5791,159 coins12.91x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$44.8889.76 coins$5791,159 coins12.91x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$44.8889.76 coins$5791,159 coins12.91x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicTx415151$44.8889.76 coins$5791,159 coins12.91x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $44.88 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%uncommon 2.0%epic 1.0%covert 17.0%industrial 15.0%Rare 15.0%restricted 49.0%best hit $607 (13.53x)