Inked Web
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.14
14.28 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $6.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.00%
1,743 openings, odds method
Variance
22.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,743 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 3,333 | $1,018 2,037 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| FAMAS | Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $18.84 37.68 coins | 26.4% | 168 | 156.9 | 1.07× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 12.0% | $10.42 20.83 coins | 19.5% | 195 | 209.2 | 0.93× |
| Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $6.70 13.4 coins | 16.7% | 280 | 278.9 | 1.00× |
| MAG-7 | Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 19.0% | $3.53 7.05 coins | 10.4% | 325 | 331.2 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 10.0% | 330 | 348.6 | 0.95× |
| P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 24.0% | $2.09 4.18 coins | 7.8% | 445 | 417.6 | 1.07× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.14 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 45.0%pink 12.0%Consumer Grade 19.0%Mythical 24.0%best hit —