Ironbox
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.36
0.72 coins
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $0.32 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.79%
8,130 openings, odds method
Variance
20.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,134 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $14.91 29.81 coins | 46.1% | 78 | 81.3 | 0.96× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 100 | $4.96 9.91 coins | 15.3% | 88 | 81.3 | 1.08× |
| MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $4.79 9.57 coins | 14.8% | 91 | 81.3 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 100 | $0.78 1.55 coins | 2.4% | 80 | 81.3 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.9% | 76 | 81.3 | 0.93× |
| Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 95.0% | $0.07 0.14 coins | 20.6% | 7,721 | 7727.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.36 | 89.85% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%#d32ee6 1.0%restricted 1.0%Rare 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit —