Italy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.47

4.93 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $2.22 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.76%

98.9K openings, odds method

Variance

158.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 333

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

97.75%±15.1626.6K openings

7 days

87.59%±8.2988.9K openings

30 days

86.76%±7.8698.9K openings

since tracking started

86.76%±7.8698.9K openings

78.5%96.0%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26.6K	97.75%±15.2	+1.0σ	odds
7d	88.9K	87.59%±8.29	−0.6σ	odds
30d	98.9K	86.76%±7.86	−0.8σ	odds
All	98.9K	86.76%±7.86	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,266 2,533 coins	5.7%	5	9.9	0.51×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,002 2,005 coins	9.0%	17	19.8	0.86×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$639 1,278 coins	11.5%	43	39.6	1.09×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$438 876 coins	9.9%	45	49.4	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$367 733 coins	13.2%	93	79.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 1,000	$361 722 coins	16.3%	85	98.9	0.86×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$261 522 coins	11.8%	97	98.9	0.98×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$112 224 coins	10.1%	192	197.8	0.97×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$67.97 136 coins	12.3%	424	395.5	1.07×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	99.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.2%	97,882	97894.2	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,2662,533 coins513.8x2h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,2662,533 coins513.8x10h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,2662,533 coins513.8x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,2662,533 coins513.8x6d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covertgramou$2.474.93 coins$1,0022,005 coins406.6x50m

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,0022,005 coins406.6x52m

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covertgramou$2.474.93 coins$1,0022,005 coins406.6x56m

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$2.474.93 coins$1,0022,005 coins406.6x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$2.474.93 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.47	89.97%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%classified 0.3%other 0.1%restricted 0.1%industrial 99.0%best hit $1,266 (513.8x)