Jackpot Case
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.19
42.38 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $19.07 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.91%
128 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 128 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 50 | $171 341 coins | 17.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $162 323 coins | 17.0% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $152 304 coins | 15.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient | 1 in 17 | $40.70 81.4 coins | 12.8% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $39.30 78.6 coins | 12.4% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 17 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 10.6% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.43× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.33 16.66 coins | 4.4% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 66.0% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 9.1% | 83 | 84.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$21.1942.38 coins$33.5667.12 coins1.58x
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classifiedprudent$21.1942.38 coins$8.3316.66 coins0.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.19 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%covert knife 2.0%Ancient 6.0%classified 82.0%extraordinary 6.0%best hit —