Jackpot Farm

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$69.10

138 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $62.19 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

142.04%

68 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

56 openings · below min

30 days

68 openings · below min

since tracking started

68 openings · below min

6.0%107.0%208.0%

Small sample. 68 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	56	78.41%±71.8	—	odds
30d	68	142.04%±65.2	—	odds
All	68	142.04%±65.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$7,335 14,669 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$5,803 11,607 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,962 9,924 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,198 8,395 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 80	$747 1,494 coins	15.0%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$657 1,315 coins	13.2%	3	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 80	$572 1,143 coins	11.5%	3	0.9	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 80	$501 1,002 coins	10.1%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$438 876 coins	8.8%	1	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 80	$384 767 coins	7.7%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 80	$316 632 coins	6.4%	2	0.9	—
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$261 522 coins	5.2%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$254 508 coins	5.1%	0	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	29.6%	$10.87 21.74 coins	5.2%	18	20.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	29.6%	$8.97 17.94 coins	4.3%	19	20.1	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified	29.6%	$8.35 16.7 coins	4.0%	19	20.1	0.94×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$69.10138 coins$7471,494 coins10.81x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$69.10138 coins$6571,315 coins9.51x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$69.10138 coins$6571,315 coins9.51x7d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$69.10138 coins$5721,143 coins8.27x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeprudent$69.10138 coins$5721,143 coins8.27x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$69.10138 coins$10.8721.74 coins0.16x1d

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$69.10138 coins$8.9717.94 coins0.13x1d

SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$69.10138 coins$10.8721.74 coins0.16x1d

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classifiedprudent$69.10138 coins$8.3516.7 coins0.12x1d

SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$69.10138 coins$10.8721.74 coins0.16x1d

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified$69.10138 coins$8.3516.7 coins0.12x1d

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$69.10138 coins$8.9717.94 coins0.13x1d

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classifiedcaze$69.10138 coins$8.3516.7 coins0.12x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$69.10	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.3%covert knife 2.5%Covert 1.3%restricted 1.3%mil spec 29.6%industrial 29.6%classified 29.6%best hit $747 (10.81x)