JellyBeans

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$370.31

741 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $333.27 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.06%

604 openings, odds method

Variance

18.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72 openings · below min

7 days

81.91%±35.07582 openings

30 days

79.06%±34.42604 openings

since tracking started

79.06%±34.42604 openings

-0.5%77.0%154.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	72	54.14%±99.7	—	odds
7d	582	81.91%±35.1	−0.5σ	odds
30d	604	79.06%±34.4	−0.6σ	odds
All	604	79.06%±34.4	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$10.4K 20,866 coins	15.7%	2	3.0	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire	1 in 200	$9,483 18,967 coins	14.2%	3	3.0	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$8,862 17,724 coins	13.3%	4	3.0	1.32×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$8,347 16,693 coins	12.5%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$7,714 15,428 coins	11.6%	3	3.0	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$7,651 15,302 coins	11.5%	2	3.0	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$5,893 11,786 coins	8.8%	4	3.0	1.32×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$5,754 11,508 coins	8.6%	4	3.0	1.32×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$183 367 coins	1.1%	8	12.1	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 50	$166 332 coins	1.0%	10	12.1	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 50	$107 215 coins	0.6%	15	12.1	1.24×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50	$44.59 89.17 coins	0.3%	15	12.1	1.24×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$28.89 57.77 coins	0.3%	18	18.1	0.99×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$25.16 50.31 coins	0.3%	26	24.2	1.08×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$5.23 10.45 coins	0.1%	37	30.2	1.23×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	76.0%	$0.56 1.11 coins	0.1%	453	459.0	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$370741 coins$10.4K20,866 coins28.17x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$370741 coins$10.4K20,866 coins28.17x2d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$370741 coins$9,48318,967 coins25.61x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$370741 coins$9,48318,967 coins25.61x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire$370741 coins$9,48318,967 coins25.61x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$370741 coins$8,86217,724 coins23.93x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$370741 coins$8,86217,724 coins23.93x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldilovegoon$370741 coins$8,86217,724 coins23.93x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$370741 coins$7,71415,428 coins20.83x13h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified$370741 coins$5.2310.45 coins0.01x27m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$370741 coins$0.561.11 coins0.00x27m

SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$370741 coins$25.1650.31 coins0.07x27m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$370741 coins$0.561.11 coins0.00x27m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarenigxoo$370741 coins$0.561.11 coins0.00x27m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$370741 coins$0.561.11 coins0.00x13h

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · RareRubix$370741 coins$0.561.11 coins0.00x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$370	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.0%#EB4B4B 0.5%Knives 0.5%Immortal 2.0%classified 8.0%Rare 80.0%best hit $10.4K (28.17x)