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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$89.46
179 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $80.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.09%
821 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
61 openings · below min
30 days
89.09%±19.59821 openings
since tracking started
89.09%±19.59821 openings
18.0%90.5%163.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d6190.44%±71.9—odds
30d82189.09%±19.6−0.1σodds
All82189.09%±19.6−0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 821 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 100$1,201 2,403 coins14.9%98.21.10×
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$1,112 2,225 coins13.8%88.20.97×
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$1,089 2,177 coins13.5%88.20.97×
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 100$1,062 2,124 coins13.2%58.20.61×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 50$755 1,509 coins18.7%2016.41.22×
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 50$520 1,041 coins12.9%1116.40.67×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 31 in 50$518 1,037 coins12.9%2116.41.28×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff90.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%739738.91.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$89.46179 coins$1,2012,403 coins13.43x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$89.46179 coins$1,1122,225 coins12.43x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$89.46179 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$89.4690.00%8
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%gold 1.0%Covert 2.0%other 2.0%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $1,201 (13.43x)