Jonkenn 5%
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.49
147 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $66.14 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.34%
3,903 openings, odds method
Variance
142.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 313
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,903 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 16.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 28.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 3,333 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 667 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 15.6% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | somebody (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 1,250 | $4,480 8,960 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $696 1,391 coins | 21.0% | 63 | 78.1 | 0.81× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $266 531 coins | 8.0% | 96 | 78.1 | 1.23× |
| P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1 | 1 in 1,000 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 95.5% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,724 | 3727.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$73.49147 coins$26.7K53,347 coins363.0x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$73.49147 coins$18.7K37,392 coins254.4x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$73.49147 coins$18.7K37,392 coins254.4x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$73.49147 coins$18.7K37,392 coins254.4x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$73.49147 coins$12.1K24,151 coins164.3x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$73.49147 coins$6,89213,784 coins93.79x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$73.49147 coins$6,89213,784 coins93.79x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$73.49147 coins$6,89213,784 coins93.79x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$73.49147 coins$6,89213,784 coins93.79x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$73.49147 coins$6,89213,784 coins93.79x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.49 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.1%covert 2.2%extraordinary 2.2%#4b69ff 95.5%best hit $26.7K (363.0x)