Jungle Night

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$307.34

615 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $276.60 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.57%

40 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

50.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

49.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

34 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

23.0%85.5%148.0%

Small sample. 40 openings and 20.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	34	82.24%±58.5	—	odds
30d	40	93.57%±54.0	—	odds
All	40	93.57%±54.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$8,972 17,944 coins	3.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$4,198 8,395 coins	3.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 333	$2,955 5,910 coins	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 333	$2,844 5,688 coins	3.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 250	$2,169 4,338 coins	3.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 250	$2,156 4,312 coins	3.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 250	$1,935 3,870 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 250	$1,880 3,759 coins	2.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$1,816 3,632 coins	2.6%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl	1 in 250	$1,814 3,629 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 250	$1,805 3,610 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$1,796 3,591 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 250	$1,788 3,576 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	46.0%	$377 753 coins	62.6%	20	18.4	1.09×
Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	49.5%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	18	19.8	0.91×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2prudent$307615 coins$2,1564,312 coins7.02x8d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$307615 coins$1,8163,632 coins5.91x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$307615 coins$377753 coins1.23x4d

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$307615 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x4d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$307615 coins$377753 coins1.23x4d

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$307615 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x4d

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarekvaki$307615 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x4d

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$307615 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x4d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$307615 coins$377753 coins1.23x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$307	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.5%covert 48.5%contraband 0.3%Covert 0.8%gold 0.4%Rare 49.5%best hit $2,156 (7.02x)