Jungle Pot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.00
29.99 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $13.49 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.28%
887 openings, odds method
Variance
11.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 887 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 100 | $501 1,002 coins | 37.1% | 13 | 8.9 | 1.47× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 11 | $50.13 100 coins | 33.4% | 86 | 79.8 | 1.08× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $11.05 22.1 coins | 12.3% | 139 | 133.0 | 1.04× |
| Charm | Disco MACcharm · uncommon | 16.0% | $8.00 16 coins | 9.5% | 148 | 141.9 | 1.04× |
| Negev | CaliCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $5.17 10.33 coins | 7.7% | 166 | 177.4 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 39.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 335 | 345.9 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covertfortune$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$15.0029.99 coins$5011,002 coins33.41x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$15.0029.99 coins$50.13100 coins3.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.00 | 89.98% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%Industrial Grade 9.0%Legendary 15.0%uncommon 16.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 39.0%best hit $501 (33.41x)