Karambit Hard
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.60
9.2 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $4.14 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.83%
1,344 openings, odds method
Variance
15.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,344 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $686 1,371 coins | 8.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 2,000 | $270 541 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $71.76 144 coins | 17.3% | 21 | 13.4 | 1.56× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 34.0% | $8.16 16.31 coins | 67.0% | 465 | 457.0 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Tread (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec | 18.0% | $0.27 0.54 coins | 1.2% | 223 | 241.9 | 0.92× |
| M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 16.0% | $0.27 0.54 coins | 1.0% | 215 | 215.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 16.0% | $0.26 0.52 coins | 1.0% | 226 | 215.0 | 1.05× |
| Nova | Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 14.9% | $0.26 0.51 coins | 0.9% | 192 | 200.3 | 0.96× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.60 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 34.0%Mil Spec 18.0%#8847ff 16.0%mil spec 16.0%Rare 14.9%best hit $686 (149.0x)