Karambit Kit
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.98
39.96 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $17.98 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.05%
1,260 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 55
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,260 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$19.9839.96 coins$1,7313,462 coins86.64x
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertaxel02legmail$19.9839.96 coins$5341,068 coins26.74x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.98 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.9%covert knife 0.1%Covert 0.1%#4b69ff 95.9%best hit $1,731 (86.64x)