Katowice Jackpot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$453.16
906 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $407.84 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
143.31%
336 openings, odds method
Variance
12.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.47% – 181.15%, 336 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 336 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 2,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 143 | $9,909 19,817 coins | 17.0% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.55× |
| Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 15.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,581 3,163 coins | 19.4% | 22 | 16.8 | 1.31× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $1,208 2,416 coins | 20.7% | 26 | 23.5 | 1.11× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 13 | $747 1,494 coins | 14.7% | 35 | 26.9 | 1.30× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare | 10.0% | $253 506 coins | 6.2% | 30 | 33.6 | 0.89× |
| P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 68.3% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 0.1% | 215 | 229.3 | 0.94× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$52.4K104,780 coins115.6x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$9,90919,817 coins21.87x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$453906 coins$6,32812,655 coins13.96x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$453906 coins$7471,494 coins1.65x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$453906 coins$7471,494 coins1.65x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$453906 coins$1,2082,416 coins2.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $453 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.8%covert 20.0%rare 10.0%restricted 68.3%best hit $52.4K (115.6x)