KEKW
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,461.92
2,924 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,315.73 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.09%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$1,4622,924 coins$10.4K20,866 coins7.14x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$1,4622,924 coins$7,33514,669 coins5.02x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$3,7227,444 coins2.55x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$3,7227,444 coins2.55x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$3,7227,444 coins2.55x
Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$1,4622,924 coins$3,1556,310 coins2.16x
Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$1,4622,924 coins$3,1556,310 coins2.16x
Sticker | seang@res (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$1,4622,924 coins$3,1556,310 coins2.16x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.69x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.69x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireJohnDoe77$1,4622,924 coins$1,7013,402 coins1.16x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$3,7227,444 coins2.55x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$1,4622,924 coins$5011,002 coins0.34x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,4622,924 coins$1,7013,402 coins1.16x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4622,924 coins$1,0022,005 coins0.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,462 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 56.9%extraordinary 6.1%Extraordinary 6.0%Covert 13.5%Rare 17.5%best hit $10.4K (7.14x)