Killshot

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$246.63

493 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $221.96 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.31%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

2.5%64.3%126.0%

Small sample. 20 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	64.31%±61.0	—	odds
30d	20	64.31%±61.0	—	odds
All	20	64.31%±61.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$1,381 2,761 coins	15.6%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$1,371 2,743 coins	15.4%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 33	$873 1,745 coins	11.8%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 33	$774 1,548 coins	10.5%	1	0.6	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$564 1,128 coins	7.6%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$331 661 coins	8.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$325 650 coins	8.8%	1	1.2	0.83×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$277 555 coins	7.5%	2	1.2	1.67×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 13	$195 391 coins	7.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 13	$130 259 coins	4.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$34.73 69.46 coins	1.6%	3	2.0	1.50×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$11.04 22.07 coins	0.6%	3	2.5	1.20×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	12.0%	$0.16 0.32 coins	0.0%	2	2.4	0.83×
AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common	17.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	7	3.5	2.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$247493 coins$1,3812,761 coins5.60x2d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$247493 coins$7741,548 coins3.14x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$247493 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$247493 coins$1,3812,761 coins5.60x2d

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$247493 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Commonfordtransit$247493 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$247493 coins$0.160.32 coins0.00x4d

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted$247493 coins$11.0422.07 coins0.04x4d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$247493 coins$34.7369.46 coins0.14x4d

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$247493 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4d

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted$247493 coins$11.0422.07 coins0.04x4d

M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$247493 coins$34.7369.46 coins0.14x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$247	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedClassified 10.5%classified 12.5%#D32CE6 3.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%covert 15.0%restricted 18.5%#d32ee6 8.0%blue 12.0%Common 17.5%best hit $1,381 (5.60x)