Kindred Spirit
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.56
13.11 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $5.90 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.37%
1,650 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,650 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $145 290 coins | 49.1% | 26 | 33.0 | 0.79× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $51.39 103 coins | 17.4% | 38 | 33.0 | 1.15× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $12.80 25.6 coins | 10.9% | 73 | 82.5 | 0.88× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $9.11 18.22 coins | 7.7% | 85 | 82.5 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $7.18 14.36 coins | 6.1% | 87 | 82.5 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $6.37 12.73 coins | 5.4% | 90 | 82.5 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 20 | $2.69 5.38 coins | 2.3% | 66 | 82.5 | 0.80× |
| SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.5% | 161 | 165.0 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $0.13 0.26 coins | 0.4% | 345 | 330.0 | 1.05× |
| P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1 | 41.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 679 | 676.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Hades (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial GradeVinnie2524$6.5613.11 coins$9.1118.22 coins1.39x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.56 | 89.94% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 41.0%covert 9.0%Industrial Grade 10.0%classified 5.0%#d32ee6 5.0%violet 10.0%Rare 20.0%best hit —