King Of The Castle
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$657.42
1,315 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $591.67 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
124.91%
536 openings, odds method
Variance
20.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 45.1% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.31× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 17.6% | 13 | 5.4 | 2.43× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 12.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon | 1 in 100 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 8.5% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 96.0% | $100 200 coins | 16.3% | 505 | 514.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · coverteliboti$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$6571,315 coins$26.7K53,347 coins40.57x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldSeebarsch$6571,315 coins$10.4K20,866 coins15.87x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$6571,315 coins$10.4K20,866 coins15.87x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$6571,315 coins$10.4K20,866 coins15.87x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $657 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 99.0%uncommon 1.0%best hit $26.7K (40.57x)