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Knife Kingdom

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$124.88
250 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $112.39 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.50%
2,254 openings, odds method
Variance
39.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 99
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
18 openings · below min
7 days
84.20%±47.02679 openings
30 days
83.50%±25.812,254 openings
since tracking started
83.50%±25.812,254 openings
-0.5%283.5%567.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h18277.93%±288.8—odds
7d67984.20%±47.0−0.2σodds
30d2,25483.50%±25.8−0.5σodds
All2,25483.50%±25.8−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,278 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$8,079 16,159 coins7.2%42.31.76×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 667$7,752 15,504 coins10.3%23.40.59×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$7,444 14,887 coins13.2%44.60.88×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 385$6,562 13,124 coins15.2%55.90.84×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl1 in 333$6,327 12,654 coins16.9%46.80.59×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl1 in 286$5,893 11,786 coins18.4%98.01.13×
★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 50$253 506 coins4.5%4345.60.94×
★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife27.2%$59.01 118 coins14.3%611620.10.99×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff69.4%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%1,5961581.41.01×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$125250 coins$8,07916,159 coins64.70x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$125250 coins$8,07916,159 coins64.70x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$125250 coins$8,07916,159 coins64.70x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$125250 coins$8,07916,159 coins64.70x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$125250 coins$7,75215,504 coins62.08x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$125250 coins$7,75215,504 coins62.08x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$125250 coins$7,44414,887 coins59.61x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$125250 coins$7,44414,887 coins59.61x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$125250 coins$7,44414,887 coins59.61x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$125250 coins$7,44414,887 coins59.61x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$125250 coins$5,89311,786 coins47.19x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$125250 coins$59.01118 coins0.47x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffnigxoo$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$125250 coins$59.01118 coins0.47x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$12590.00%9
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%#EB4B4B 0.3%Knives 0.4%Covert 2.0%covert knife 27.2%#4b69ff 69.4%best hit $8,079 (64.70x)